¿Morirá Donald Trump o enfermará gravemente antes de que termine su mandato?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 82%
Pronosticadores
969
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
12 nov 24, 19:10 UTC19 ene 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de ¿Morirá Donald Trump o enfermará gravemente antes de que termine su mandato??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve ¿Morirá Donald Trump o enfermará gravemente antes de que termine su mandato??
- Está previsto que ¿Morirá Donald Trump o enfermará gravemente antes de que termine su mandato? se resuelva el 19 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida ¿Morirá Donald Trump o enfermará gravemente antes de que termine su mandato??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.