Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 69.5%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado28 abr 26, 19:37 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office.
- If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.
- Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack .
Mercados abiertos
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- J.D. Vance50%
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- Jon Ossoff17%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 70% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria