Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
IA
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Russia 33.3%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 jul 24, 16:56 UTC31 dic 49, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices
- Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Russia al 33% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first??
- Está previsto que Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2049.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018