Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 99.1%
Pronosticadores
42
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
29 nov 22, 7:19 UTC21 ene 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill Stephen Hsu's kids become friends with Bryan Caplan's kids?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiReglas
https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html
- Arguing for YES is Bryan's uncanny track record -- he's never lost a public bet ever!
- Arguing for NO is that global temperatures have gone up a lot in the 8 years since the bet was shaken on.
- You can look at the graph and see that Bryan Caplan was wrong.
- Related market: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-bryan-caplan-lose-any-of-his-p
- Close date updated to 2024-05-15 3:59 pm
Mercados abiertos
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
- Boston+42.0pt99%
- New York City+64.0pt99%
- Providence+59.0pt99%
+24 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 224,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 219,5 mil €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
- 77° to 78°44.3%
- 75° to 76°42.5%
- 73° to 74°7.5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 44,9 mil €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 21, 2026?
- 91° to 92°49.1%
- 89° to 90°22.9%
- 93° to 94°16.9%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 31,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 31,8 mil €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 21, 2026?
- 70° to 71°55.9%
- 68° to 69°27.4%
- 72° to 73°12.8%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 28,6 mil €
KALSHIWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Gonzalo-1.0pt29%
- Hanna-3.0pt22%
- Josephine+4.0pt9%
+18 resultados más
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 21, 2026?
- 86° to 87°35.5%
- 88° to 89°25.2%
- 90° to 91°23.4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 25,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 25,1 mil €
- Rain in Chicago in Sep 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 21, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 22?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 22?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 22?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 22?
- Highest temperature in NYC on September 22?
- Highest temperature in London on September 22?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman??
- Está previsto que Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman? se resuelva el 21 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html