Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 56.4%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado4 feb 26, 21:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- Brightline will be considered in default if it fails to make a scheduled debt payment and exhausts its remaining payment deferrals allowed under bond agreements.
- The market resolves YES if Brightline defaults on any of its debt obligations at any point during 2026.
- The market resolves NO if Brightline makes all required debt payments throughout 2026 without triggering a default clause.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Brightline, bond trustee filings with the SEC's EMMA system (https://emma.msrb.org/), or statements from credit rating agencies (S&P Global, Fitch, Moody's).
- Fitch Ratings warned a default by mid-2027 is "highly likely", and S&P projects the most likely path to default is January 1, 2027.
Mercados abiertos
Regulation
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt42%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+1.0pt41%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt34%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 58,9 mil €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.0pt83.2%
- Yes+2.0pt16.8%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 43,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt98%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt95%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETWeed rescheduled by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt16%
- September 30-8.6pt2%
- July 31-1.2pt0%
+2 resultados más
KALSHIWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Jersey Mike's99%
- Shein98%
- Oura-3.0pt95%
+26 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,8 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 56% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026?
- Está previsto que Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria