Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 70.5%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 34 minutos
4 may 26, 20:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any government or sovereign-wealth-fund publicly announces a single AI-infrastructure investment commitment of $10 billion USD or more.
- "Sovereign-AI deal" includes: government-funded AI compute capacity, sovereign-cloud investments, government-AI-procurement frameworks with stated budgets, sovereign-wealth-fund equity investments in AI infrastructure companies, government data-center build commitments.
- The deal must be ≥$10B in stated commitment value.
- Source of truth: government press releases, sovereign-wealth-fund public communications, ministerial-level announcements, publicly reported via primary sources (gov.* domains) or major news outlets citing primary sources.
- A single line-item in a national budget that allocates ≥$10B to AI counts.
- A multi-year program where the announced commitment ≥$10B counts.