Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 97%
Pronosticadores
55
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 35 minutos
21 ene 25, 23:42 UTC29 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This resolves to YES if we are confident that any model from DeepSeek, whether or not it existed at the time this question was created, would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.
- This resolves to NO if that does not happen by 1/1/2027.
- If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.
- I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences.
- Similarly: If there is a dispute on this market that would prove a distraction unjustified by the associated volume, I will probably turn this over to the mods then.
- Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Market Closing Date: The market will close on 01/01/2027.
