Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.1%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado16 ago 26, 21:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 16, 2026, through January 01, 2027 (00:00 CET), an open-weights model holds the #1 position (highest score) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard sorted by "Intelligence Index").
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Note that a model has to be open weights while holding the #1 position, if a model is proprietary on initial release only releasing weights after it's no longer occupying the #1 position it does not count
- Ties: If multiple models are tied for the #1 spot (same numerical index score), and at least one of the tied models is open weights, the market resolves to YES.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 76% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Está previsto que Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria