Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 89.4%
Pronosticadores
70
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado2 dic 23, 5:39 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketReglas
In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel.
- Be at least 60,000 words.
- Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.
- Not have obvious continuity errors.
- Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction.
- (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine.
