Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAI research completely automated by April 2028 45%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado31 mar 26, 3:47 UTC31 mar 28, 3:40 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWithin the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Manifold MarketsIf Robert F Kennedy Jr serves under Trump, will he get fired or forced to resign within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWill I win the lottery within the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiReglas
Eliezer Yudkowsky retweeted @deredleritt3r's summary of the state of AI research:
- You don't truly understand the magnitude of the potential impact of powerful AI on the world unless you are aware, and have fully internalized, that senior leadership and most researchers at the frontier labs actually believe the following:
- Existing AI is already significantly speeding up AI research.
- Very soon (this year), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research other than generation of novel research ideas.
- Soon (within the next 2 years), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research, period.
- This means hundreds of thousands of GPUs working 24/7 to discover novel ideas at the level of, or better than, the likes of Alec Radford, Ilya Sutskever, etc.