Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 75.1%
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33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado1 dic 25, 14:07 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Está previsto que Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.