Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 2026Elección10hManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 53.7%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 11 minutos
2 nov 26, 10:04 UTC4 nov 26, 4:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExReglas
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan.
- This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
- If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.
- Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding.
- For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
