¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 69.8% a fecha de 31 de octubre de 2026.

Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 69.8%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

3 ago 23, 17:06 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030.

This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on.
To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia.
As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify.
(Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)