Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSociedad y culturaSalud y medicinaMacro y economíaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo global catastrophe 60%Líder entre 7 opciones
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62
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado21 jul 23, 0:41 UTC2 ene 00, 4:59 UTC
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If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
- If multiple global catastrophes occur, resolves based on the first.
- [link preview]See also:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-global-catastrophe-kill-at-l-d006e1e39ca8)
