¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 87.6% a fecha de 29 de octubre de 2026.

Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?

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Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 87.6%

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Tipo de pregunta

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Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 10 horas

Desactualizado

20 jul 26, 0:43 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

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This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.

The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
See my X post describing the bet.
This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.