Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
One-OffRegulaciónSalud y medicina8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 72.5%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado14 abr 24, 19:22 UTC1 ene 35, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?
Manifold MarketsTdi-11861 (a fast-acting male contraceptive) approved for human clinical trials by the end of 2026?
FutuurBy 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
Manifold MarketsWill any clinical trials of any drug be done in a First Nations reservation in Canada by 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many clinical trials will have started in Prospera by Dec 31, 2026?
FutuurReglas
Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.
- An option to skip human testing would be to rely on accurate simulations of the human body, but this would require advanced models that can accurately represent the complex interactions within human biology, including genetic variations and long-term effects.
- Achieving this requires vast computational power, sophisticated algorithms, a deeper integration of diverse biological data and obviously overcoming regulations.
- As far as I understand, the computational requirements for such an effort would be in the realm of exaflops, not far from current supercomputers.
- What are the odds to have an AI generated drug that skips human testing within a decade?
- Feel free to comment and share your thoughts and insights!
