Widespread reports of ICE or DHS agents guarding polling stations during Trump II
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 59.8%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado15 ago 25, 4:17 UTC20 ene 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if before Jan 20, 2029, credible reporting shows DHS personnel (including ICE, CBP, FPS, or USSS) were stationed to provide an ongoing security/guarding presence at in-person polling places (including early-voting sites) in at least five U.S. states on the same election day.
- “Guarding” means posted at or immediately outside the entrance as a security presence under DHS direction, not merely responding to a specific call.
- Verification will rely on AP or Reuters, or on DHS/agency orders or press statements; alternatively, two or more of: NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, or PBS.
- If DHS officially announces such a deployment, that alone is sufficient.
- Otherwise NO on Jan 21, 2029.
- Excludes: state/local police; DOJ Civil Rights monitors; presence at ballot-counting centers or election offices that are not polling places; isolated incident responses.
