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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Política
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent) 6.8%
Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores

4

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 días

Desactualizado
18 jun 25, 14:3631 dic 26, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)7%

Reglas

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.

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Reglas

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.