Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 5th District?
0.7 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20261m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualRepublican Party 96.8%+0.7ptLíder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+1.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado6 oct 26, 5:54 UTC13 dic 26, 12:00 UTC
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ForecastExReglas
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Louisiana's 5th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 open U.S. Representative primary if a candidate wins a majority of the votes; otherwise the December 12, 2026 open general election between the top two, whatever their parties (Act 7 of 2026; Louisiana SOS calendar).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by the named outcome or the named outcome who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
