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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceCienciaTecnología3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores

5

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 días

Desactualizado
13 feb 26, 8:111 ene 30, 8:11

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Nova16%

Reglas

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$65,893.78+2.13%SolanaSOL$71.19+3.28%EthereumETH$1,720.05+2.29%DogecoinDOGE$0.0889+1.00%BNBBNB$617.66+1.30%XRPXRP$1.19+2.88%

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Reglas

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.