Pronóstico comunitario actual
Any model announced before 2034 86.6%Líder entre 51 opciones
Pronosticadores
177
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-1.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
1 ene 25, 23:47 UTC1 ene 01, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
Manifold MarketsAre Recursive Language Models the "Next Frontier" of AI in 2026 according to Manifold users?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiTitled Tuesday Winner: Sep 8
KalshiReglas
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.