Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2030 81.9%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+4.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado11 ago 24, 16:42 UTC1 feb 31, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2030 al 82% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Está previsto que When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.