Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualJudge David J. Porter 96%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado8 sept 25, 18:37 UTC8 sept 27, 18:23 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Mercados abiertos
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 220,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 105,1 mil €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
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- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Judge David J. Porter al 96% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Está previsto que Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? se resuelva el 8 de septiembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria