Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualMoonbase 51.3%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado25 mar 26, 5:07 UTC25 mar 36, 5:02 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
Manifold MarketsWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
PolymarketReglas
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
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- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 944,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
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KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
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KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 resultados más
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KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Moonbase al 51% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Está previsto que Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail? se resuelva el 25 de marzo de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.