Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Starship 55%
Pronosticadores
51
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado23 sept 24, 14:14 UTC2 ene 35, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Starship al 55% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail??
- Está previsto que Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.