Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Starship 55%
Starship 55%Pronosticadores
51
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado23 sept 24, 14:14 UTC2 ene 35, 6:59 UTC
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KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
