Which Frontier AI Lab will hold the #1 spot on Chatbot Arena on October 1?
IAOne-OffTecnologíaEspacio
Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Google (98.3%)
Resuelto: 2 oct 2026, 1:08
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 2 oct 2026, 12:34 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Anthropic0.4%
OpenAI0.4%
Google98.3%
SpaceXAI0.4%
Others0.4%
Ganada
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
Perdida
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Resolution criteria
- Source of Truth: This market will resolve based on the official "Text Arena - Overall" leaderboard standings of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, hosted at Hugging Face Chatbot Arena or Arena AI.
- Timing: The standings will be evaluated based on the leaderboard state on October 1, 2026.
- If the live site is down, the most recent update or snapshot around that date will be used.
- Winning Lab: Resolution is determined by the organization/developer of the model ranked #1 overall.
- Ties: In the event of an exact tie in Elo score at the #1 spot, the model listed first (occupying the top row) in the default leaderboard view will determine the winning lab.
