Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris this year?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%Líder entre 9 opciones
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13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-1.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado30 sept 26, 5:31 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.