¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon??

Manifold Markets cotiza Orbit al 86% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon??

Está previsto que Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2050.

¿Cómo se liquida Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon??

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Nameplate capacity, total across all users.

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Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon?

One-OffEspacio Ciencia

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Orbit 86%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 horas

Desactualizado

17 dic 25, 22:50 UTC31 dic 50, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Reglas

Nameplate capacity, total across all users.

Best estimates -- if we can find a single source using consistent methods in advance, I may update to use that.
Moon is on the surface; orbit includes Lunar orbit.

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Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon?

Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon?

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