Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualJul-Dec 2026 97.8%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado2 abr 26, 18:19 UTC1 ene 33, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
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KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the date (UTC) on which a SpaceX Starship vehicle successfully reaches Earth orbit for the first time.
- For the purpose of this market, Achieving Earth orbit means the Starship upper stage (Ship) completes at least one full, uninterrupted revolution around Earth on a trajectory where its perigee remains above the sensible atmosphere (roughly 100 km altitude), such that it could continue orbiting without further propulsion.
- A suborbital trajectory that reenters before completing one full orbit — even if it reaches orbital altitude and velocity briefly — does not count.
- The orbit does not need to be circular, long-lived, or carry any particular payload; what matters is that the vehicle demonstrably enters a closed (or near-closed) elliptical path around the Earth and sustains it for at least one complete revolution.
- High-apogee suborbital hops, intentional deorbit-before-one-revolution test profiles, and breakup during ascent do not count.
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $82,000 or above99%
- $82,250 or above99%
- $81,750 or above99%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 968,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 967,9 mil €
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- 200-219+27.0pt68.3%
- 220-239+24.0pt30.7%
- 240-259+0.1pt1%
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KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 85,000 to 89,999.99-0.9pt11.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt11.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.2pt9.8%
+25 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $65,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $66,500 or above99%
- $67,000 or above99%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt34%
- 220-239+14.0pt24.5%
- 180-199-17.5pt17.9%
+23 resultados más
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 22, 2026?
- Newark+59.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+95.0pt99%
- Philadelphia+11.0pt99%
+24 resultados más
- Volumen total
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Starship reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Jul-Dec 2026 al 97.8% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Starship reach orbit??
- Está previsto que When will Starship reach orbit? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2033.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Starship reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria