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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Claim that Grok/xAI has reached AGI (a statement by Musk on X counts) 72.8%+22.8ptLíder entre 11 opciones
Claim that Grok/xAI has reached AGI (a statement by Musk on X counts) 72.8%+22.8ptPronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+22.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 37 minutos
20 oct 26, 13:08 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Each answer resolves independently: YES if the event happens between 1 January 2027, 00:00 UTC and 1 January 2028, 00:00 UTC; NO otherwise.
- Events before 2027 do not count.
- Each answer resolves on whether the event happens during 2027, not whether it happens for the first time.
- Actions by companies Musk leads or controls count as his.
- Sources: official company statements and regulatory filings (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, SEC, FEC), then reputable outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, WSJ; SpaceNews, NASASpaceFlight and Spaceflight Now for spaceflight answers), and Musk's own X posts where applicable.
- In case of ambiguity, I'll open a discussion before resolving.
