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  3. What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

PolíticaCommoditiesIA5m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Maine
Maine 15.5%
Líder entre 16 opciones
Pronosticadores

17

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 días

Desactualizado
2 dic 24, 1:116 dic 26, 4:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Maine16%

Reglas

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!

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Reglas

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!