Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2029 24.2%-0.4ptLíder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-0.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
17 nov 23, 22:04 UTC1 ene 34, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
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Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2029 al 24% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Está previsto que What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.