What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
One-OffSociedad y culturaCienciaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 75.4%
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 22, 13:58 UTC2 ene 00, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identify as LGBTQ+.
- This survey will be conducted as soon as possible once there are more than 1,000 such persons, and will aim to contact all such persons (though some amount of nonresponse is inevitable).
