US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Rusia / Ucrania13a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 78.7%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado26 nov 25, 14:37 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:
- A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or
- Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.
- “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:
