Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.4%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
22 sept 26, 14:32 UTC28 oct 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
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KalshiAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
YES if the Budget announces a cash cut to any working-age benefit rate, or an April 2027 uprating below September 2026 CPI for any working-age benefit.
- Changes to eligibility or assessments alone resolve NO.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.