Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Barristan Selmy 80.7%Líder entre 25 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado30 sept 25, 1:37 UTC31 dic 29, 0:26 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Alecto the Ninth come out before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWill "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)
- Ambiguous/iffy deaths will probably be invalidated if not sufficiently clear whether the character has actually died.
- Characters abandoning a previous identity does not count as them dying (i.e. Alayne Stone, Varys the Spider, etc.)
Mercados abiertos
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 319,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 98 mil €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 resultados más
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 80 mil €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 130,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 45,3 mil €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4 M €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de "The Winds of Winter" character death market?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Barristan Selmy al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve "The Winds of Winter" character death market?
- Está previsto que "The Winds of Winter" character death market se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida "The Winds of Winter" character death market?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Vote yes/no on whether you believe these characters will die over the course of the story during "The Winds of Winter" (or whatever book 6 is called when released)