The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
One-OffTecnologíaPolítica13aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 76.9%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado8 feb 24, 12:36 UTC1 ene 40, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?
Manifold MarketsThe Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million in India by 2040?
Manifold MarketsThe Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Heatwave Kill More Than a Million around the world by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsTexas enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketOhio enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Inspired by the Kim Stanley Robinson novel "The Ministry for the Future".
- Robinson describes drone swarms as follows:
- "They were more powerful than the atomic bomb, in this very particular sense: you could use them.
- And they couldn’t be stopped ...
- They were small, they launched from mobile launchers, they came from all directions in a coordinated attack in which they only congregated at their target in the last few second of their flights."
- They are a menace to anybody with name recognition in the book.
