Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualTesla 65.5%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado26 abr 25, 6:27 UTC31 dic 26, 6:38 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.
- Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.
- This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident.
- If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.
- A major accident must
- Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND
Mercados abiertos
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- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Tesla al 66% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash??
- Está previsto que Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Tesla or Waymo First Serious Self-Driving Taxi Crash??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.