Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 66.8%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado6 ene 26, 0:52 UTC1 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
PolymarketUS Govt Sanctions Keir Starmer chief of staff?
Manifold MarketsWill Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House?
KalshiWho will visit the White House in 2026?
KalshiWho will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Mercados abiertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 695,7 mil €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 resultados más
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volumen total
- 24,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 294,7 mil €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 291,3 mil €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 67% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026??
- Está previsto que Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.