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Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RegulaciónOne-Off3m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 90.4%

Pronosticadores

5

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 13 horas

Desactualizado

10 abr 26, 21:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Reglas

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Mercados abiertos

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+2.0pt86%
Yes-2.0pt14%

Volumen total: 12,4 M €
Volumen 24h: 182,3 mil €

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,+3.5pt90%
November 30,85%

+7 resultados más

Volumen total

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%

+7 resultados más

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+3.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 resultados más

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 resultados más

Volumen total: 1,4 M €

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
$1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
$1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%

+5 resultados más

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: Está previsto que Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
¿Cómo se liquida Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

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