Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 90.3%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado19 nov 23, 21:38 UTC1 nov 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the Key Encapsulation Mechanism Kyber (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- This algorithm is notably used in Signal (2), and downstream adopters of the Signal protocol (though it is coupled with elliptic curve key exchange such that attacks on both are necessary for key interception)
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyber
- (2) https://signal.org/blog/pqxdh/
