¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 59.8% a fecha de 25 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

Está previsto que Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2032.

CriptoOne-Off5a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 59.8%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 48 minutos

Retrasado

5 ago 22, 23:19 UTC1 ene 32, 6:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032.
There will be no early resolution.
(Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)
I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly.
For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.