Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.8%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 23, 20:04 UTC1 nov 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme SPHINCS+ (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://sphincs.org/
