Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 0:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 90.1%
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado18 ene 26, 20:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsPierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
KalshiWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
