¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent??

Manifold Markets cotiza 2030 al 59% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

2030 59%

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multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

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Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 13 horas

Desactualizado

20 may 25, 2:41 UTC1 ene 31, 3:32 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

To resolve, at the end of the year I will take a sample of projects with 1000+ stars that allow AI contributions.

I will divide the number of human approved commits that had an AI author (where the AI generated the original changeset, reviews don't count) by the total number of commits.
The year will resolve to this percentage.
NOTE: The AI may be a number of asynchronous AI agents (Copilot, Google Jules, etc) - I'll count all clearly tool generated code if it's marked as such in git/GitHub.
User submitted code will not count.
If I can't accurately calculate the percentage, or can't find enough projects that meet this criteria, I'll resolve N/A. Feedback welcome on this resolution process, it may be adjusted to resolve ambiguity.