Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual≥$0.6T 100%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado22 abr 26, 3:49 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).