Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
@jim 74%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado20 jun 25, 18:55 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
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KalshiWill Delaware credit-intermediation employment increase YoY in 2026?
KalshiWendy's Credit Card Spend in September
Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketReglas
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.
Mercados abiertos
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 180,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 180,1 mil €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt57.6%
- 65-89+13.0pt34.3%
- 90-114+0.5pt4%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 resultados más
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 182,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 60,4 mil €
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030?
- Manifold Markets cotiza @jim al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030?
- Está previsto que Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.