Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 0:10 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
@jim 74%Líder entre 4 opciones
@jim 74%Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado20 jun 25, 18:55 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.