Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.9%
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54
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 11 minutos
5 jun 24, 0:43 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
- I will take "the work of an AI research/engineer" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027.
- Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense.
- I will use my best judgement.