Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado10 jun 24, 21:57 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de 1GW AI training run before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve 1GW AI training run before 2027??
- Está previsto que 1GW AI training run before 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida 1GW AI training run before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.