Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Other 58%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
40
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+2.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado8 ene 24, 12:53 UTC31 dic 34, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 536,7 mil €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
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- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Other al 58% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot?
- Está previsto que In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Clarifications: